Commentary:
Trading kicked off the last week of April on a rather dull note, as the major indices chopped around in a sideways to descending range before finishing the day flat to slightly lower. However, modestly higher volume in the NYSE pointed to another round of institutional selling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.3%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.4%. Small and mid-cap stocks took a well-deserved breather, as both the Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indices declined 0.4%. All the main stock market indexes closed near their intraday lows.
Total volume in the NYSE ticked 2% higher, while volume in the Nasdaq was 1% lighter than the previous day’s level. The higher volume loss of the S&P 500 caused the index to register another bearish “distribution day,” the fifth such instance of selling amongst mutual funds, hedge funds, and other institutions in recent weeks. Although a healthy market typically absorbs a few “distribution days” without negative effect, the presence of five more days of higher volume losses is a valid warning sign to the bulls that a correction may be just around the corner. We’ve been saying a positive price to volume relationship of the broad market is a key confirming indicator that has been missing in recent weeks, and yesterday’s distribution added to that case. Nevertheless, price action among leading stocks remains relatively solid, and the Nasdaq, which has only had two “distribution days” during the same period, has been exhibiting a much better price to volume relationship.
Several weeks ago, we looked at the long-term weekly chart of the S&P 500, and pointed out that the index had retraced more than half the loss from its October 2007 high down to its March 2009 low. At the time, we said the S&P would likely continue to grind higher until reaching major resistance of its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. When markets form a substantial counter-trend bounce, they typically retrace 38.2% to 61.8% of their prior moves before resuming the dominant trend. Fast forwarding several weeks later, the S&P is now just a few points below its 61.8% Fibo retracement level. This is shown on the weekly chart of the S&P 500 below:
Since the 61.8% Fibo retracement level is considered the “last line of defense” before a trend completely reverses itself, the current pricing area of the S&P 500 is pivotal. If the index manages to convincingly bust through the 61.8% retracement level shown above, odds of the S&P recovering all the way back to its prior highs of 2007 increase substantially. However, IF the market is going to head back down and resume its dominant, long-term downtrend, this is area where it would likely happen. Yet, a third scenario is that the index will merely trade sideways for an extended period of time, oscillating between its 50% to 61.8% retracement level. This third scenario was predicted in our year-end report of 2009, and it still appears to be a very realistic possibility.
Like the S&P 500, the Dow is also now testing pivotal resistance of its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and the same general analysis of the S&P above is applicable for the chart of the Dow. However, it’s a different picture for the Nasdaq Composite. When comparing the same period of the 2007 highs down to the 2009 lows, the Nasdaq has already moved beyond its 61.8% retracement, and is now rapidly approaching its 2007 highs. But one critical difference between the S&P and Nasdaq is the 2007 high of the S&P is also the all-time high of the index. Conversely, the 2007 high of the Nasdaq represents a Fibo retracement of just over 38.2% of the range from its March 2000 high down to its October 2002 low (the period known as the “dot com crash”). This is illustrated on the even longer-term monthly chart of the Nasdaq Composite below:
At this point, it would not surprise us if the Nasdaq recovered back to its 2007 high in the intermediate-term. However, in the bigger picture of the monthly chart, such a retracement would still be less than a 50% retracement to the all-time high of the index. For that reason, it could be argued the Nasdaq has more upside potential in the long-term, at least up to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the “dot com crash.” That would put the Nasdaq just over the 3,500 level. The S&P and Dow, on the other hand, are already at key levels of price resistance they may find difficult to overcome, unless they smash through their current highs on strong volume. In that case, a test of the 2007 highs could follow suit.
Today’s Watchlist:
S&P Energy SPDR (XLE)
Long
Shares = 200
Trigger = Buy limit of $60.50 (pullback to area of last Friday’s low)
Stop = $58.42
Target = new high (will trail stop)
Dividend Date = around June 20
Notes = This setup from yesterday did not yet trigger, but remains on our watchlist going into today. If the pullback doesn’t come, we will probably just pass on the trade, but it’s worth a shot for entry if we manage to get an ideal buy price on a pullback.
Separately, we are still monitoring Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) for potential short sale entry (as discussed in our April 23 commentary). If we decide to sell short MOO, we’ll promptly send an Intraday Trade Alert with details.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.
- No changes to our open positions at this time.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and Head Trader