Commentary:
Friday was a very tough day on Wall Street. Stocks were down dramatically across the board and all five major indices closed lower. The bears snatched control of the market at the open, and held on firmly into the close. The Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 led the decline. Both indices plummeted by 2.4%. The S&P MidCap 400, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9%, 1.8% and 1.4% respectively. It is noteworthy that the Dow Jones Transportation Average ($DJT) underperformed the entire market. The $DJT plummeted 2.7% on Friday.
Market internals were decidedly bearish and pointed clearly toward institutional selling. Volume was heavy on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Turnover jumped on the Big Board by 34% and on the Nasdaq by 18%. Declining volume overwhelmed advancing volume by a ratio of 7 to 1 on the NYSE and 8 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Distribution was broad based and relentless.
We made the decision to exit our position in PIZ due to serious weakness among emerging market ETFs. In Friday’s newsletter we stated, “The iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF) is close to losing major support. Yesterday, on a big spike in volume ILF opened near the session high and closed near the session low. A break below Thursday’s low of $51.97 provides a potential short trigger for this ETF”. ILF hit its short trigger early on Friday and we entered the trade. For the second consecutive day ILF sold off sharply on 3 times its average daily volume. We expect further selling in this ETF, but it does have support near $50.00. We would not be surprised to see ILF hit this key mark and reverse quickly. Generally these reversals are short lived for ETFs that have demonstrated relative weakness during the selloff.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average ($DJT) often serves as a good leading indicator for market reversals. Prior to yesterday’s distribution day, the $DJT had already begun to break down. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average was setting new highs, $DJT saw a sharp selloff on January 19th. Seven days later the Dow cracked (See Charts Below).
The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE) is clinging to support at the neckline of a head and shoulders like formation. A move below the January 25th Low of $25.96 is a potential short trigger for this ETF. We are placing KBE on the watchlist. Our subscribers can find trade details in the watchlist segment of this newsletter. For those of you unable to short KBE, an alternative trade is to go long the inverse ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF (SKF).
The iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index (ECH) closed below its three week low on Friday. A drop back below yesterday’s low of $71.10 should result in further downside for ECH. An alternative short entry would be a rally back into resistance near $72.00.
After a massive distribution day like we witnessed on Friday, it is often wise to wait for a bounce to enter a short position. This market has not completely broken down, as there are many support levels still intact. After a big market reversal, we prefer to short weak ETFs into a bounce rather than chase them on the way down.
Today’s Watchlist:
KBE
Short
Shares = 600
Trigger = 25.91
Stop = 26.36
Target = 24.75
Dividend Date = n/a
Notes = see commentary above
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
Our ILF short setup triggered and broke down on heavy volume. Per intraday alert, we sold PIZ for a smaller than averages loss. Note the change in the UNG stop price, which was placed 7 cents below Friday’s opening 20-minute low.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader