Potential short setup in (TUR)


Stocks closed modestly lower yesterday and well off the session lows. Trade was mixed on the session. However, as of this writing, the DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P futures are all trading down over 2%. With the Nikkei down over 17% in two sessions, a sharp selloff in the US markets would not come as a surprise. All five major indices closed in the red yesterday. The small-cap Russell 2000 ended the day lower by 0.7%. The S&P 500 slid 0.6%, while the S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq both shed 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average demonstrated the most resiliency as it dropped only 0.4%.

Market internals were mixed on Monday. Volume dropped by just over 4% on the Nasdaq but increased by 6% on the NYSE. Declining volume outpaced advancing volume by a ratio of 2.3 to 1 on both indices.

Via an intraday alert, we opened a short position in the Retail HOLDRS ETF (RTH) yesterday. For our subscribing members, trade details are available in the open positions segment of the newsletter.

Our position in the ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF (QID) appears ready for another advance. A volume fueled move back above the two day high of $54.46 may provide an opportunity to add to the position.

In the March 9th Newsletter we stated that, “The iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index ETF (TUR) has been in a “stair step” downtrend since November of 2010. A rally back into the downtrend line or the 50-day MA could provide a short entry for this ETF“. Yesterday, TUR rallied into the 50-day MA. Given current market conditions, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick reversal in this ETF. For ease of comparison, the March 9th chart of TUR has also been provided below.

Based on the sharp selloff in the Asian markets overnight, we anticipate similar action in the US markets today. Market leadership appears to be waning and our overnight research revealed a complete absence of potential long setups. For the moment, it appears that we are well positioned to participate in a possible market reversal. Due to market conditions we are more likely to open new positions intraday than by predetermined setups. This is often our approach during sharp reversals and whippy market action, as gaps become commonplace.

Today’s Watchlist:


Shares = 500
Trigger = 33.44
Stop = 34.43
Target = 30.35
Dividend Date = n/a

Notes = see commentary from March 14th letter

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

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  • Per intraday alert, we established a short position in RTH.

  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.

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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader