Short The Bounce? – (QQQ)


Stocks posted impressive gains on Monday amidst higher trade. Stocks gapped up strongly at the open, consolidated for most of the session and ultimately closed near session highs. All five major indices closed well in the black with higher beta issues leading the advance. By the closing bell the small-cap Russell 2000 tacked on a whopping 4.8% gain, while both the Nasdaq and the S&P MidCap 400 surged 3.5%. The S&P 500 tacked on 2.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted an impressive 2.6% gain.

Market internals were bullish on Monday but some caution is warranted with regard to the interpretation of this data. Volume increased by 114.0% on the Nasdaq and 99.6% on the NYSE. However, compared to Friday’s half-day volume, a massive increase in Monday’s volume could reasonably be expected. It is probably more appropriate to compare yesterday’s volume with the closing volume on November 23rd (the last full trading session). When compared to last Wednesday’s results, yesterday’s volume rose by 8.3% on the NYSE but declined by 5.9% on the Nasdaq. Advancing volume overwhelmed declining volume by a whopping margin of 39.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 10.9 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Taking the adjusted volume data into account, it seems reasonable to conclude that Monday was an accumulation day on the NYSE. The same cannot be said for the Nasdaq as total volume declined session over session.

Following a seven day slide, the PowerShares Nasdaq Trust Series 1 (QQQ) rallied sharply yesterday, and now appears headed for a rally back into resistance of its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Now that we have a sell signal in the broad market, a bounce back into this zone of resistance should provide a shorting opportunity in this ETF. We are placing QQQ on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. For those who are unable to short QQQ, a long position in the inverse ETF, QID, would serve as a reasonable proxy for this trade.

The iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EFA) has been one of the weakest ETFs in the market over the past two months. Yesterday, EFA saw its first significant rally in the wake of a nine day selloff. A move back into resistance of the declining 20 and 50 day moving averages could present a short entry trigger for this ETF.

Despite yesterday’s opening gap down, our open position in EUO performed well for the remainder of the session, as it rallied to close near the day’s highs. For the moment we are inclined to let this trade “play out”, but are still not immune to tightening the stop should market conditions change. Yesterday’s broad market rally was impressive but in the wake of a two week selloff, it was far from unexpected. This bounce in the market should help to produce trading opportunities on the short side of the market.

Today’s Watchlist:


Shares = 500
Trigger = 56.13
Stop = 56.88
Target = test of prior swing low
Dividend Date = n/a

Notes = see commentary above

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

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  • No trades were made.
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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader