Commentary:
Stocks closed mixed on Thursday, in what was a seesaw and volatile session. The market started the day off well by advancing 1.0%, and setting a new five month high. However, at the 11:00 am reversal period, the market sold off sharply. Then, at 2:00 pm, the market reversed and rallied into the close. Today’s trading falls in line with our recent analysis that the market could be in the midst of a reversal. The major indices showed varied results on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared the best by posting a 0.4% gain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000 was the worst performing index, as it shed 0.6%. The S&P MidCap 400 also declined, but only lost 0.2% on the session. The best performing sectors were the Industrial and Consumer Discretionary sectors, posting gains of 0.81% and0.58% respectively. The Utility sector was the only significant laggard on the day, as it realized a loss of 0.4%.
Turnover on the NYSE and the Nasdaq was modest for the session. The two indices posted “mirror opposite” results, as NYSE volume dropped by 5.3% and Nasdaq volume increased by 5.3%. On the NYSE, declining volume outpaced advancing volume by a ratio of 1.2 to 1. On the Nasdaq, declining volume and advancing volume were at par.
Last week, our “tightened stop”, was hit on the iShares Emerging Market Bonds Fund (EMB). At that time we received inquiries as to why we sold the position. Our reasoning was to sell into strength and re-enter on a pullback. Further, given the recent signs of a potential market reversal, we believed it was prudent to lock in a significant gain of $2,000.00. Since last week, EMB has retraced to the 20-day EMA, where it has consolidated for three days. If the market continues its advance, EMB presents a possible buying opportunity just above Thursday’s high. EMB is officially back on our watchlist of long candidates. For our regular subscribers, the detailed; trigger, stop and target prices are posted in the “Watchlist” segment of the newsletter.
The ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL) is showing signs that a trend reversal is underway. Over the past eleven trading days, this ETF has seen a massive increase in volume. Large volume spikes often foreshadow trend reversals. Since the volume fueled gap-up on October 19th, GLL has consolidated for three consecutive days at the 20-day EMA. Of further significance, in today’s trading, GLL managed to close above the 20-day EMA for the first time since August 4th. Further GLL has rallied above the downtrend line, as drawn from the July 28th “swing high”, trough the September 10th high. We will be monitoring this ETF closely for a potential buy entry.
For the moment, we are still in an uptrend and, as such, remain bullish. However, this optimism is somewhat muted, as the broad market continues to show signs of weakening. Therefore, we advise caution under the current circumstances.
Today’s Watchlist:
EMB
Long
Shares = 200
Trigger = 112.47
Stop = 109.78 (approx. $1.00 below the 50-day MA)
Target = New highs above $113.75
Dividend Date = n/a
Notes = See commentary above
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
No changes in open positions at this time.
Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader