Commentary:
Today’s watch list:
DIA – DIAMONDS (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Tracking Stock)
Short
Trigger = below 91.87 (below the hourly trendline support and 20-MA)
Target = 90.80 (50% Fibo retracement from July 1 low to July 8 high)
Stop = 92.30 (above the 20 and 40-MAs on 15 min. chart)
Notes = Looking to short the Dow on a break of hourly trendline support based on its recent relative weakness. However, there is support not too far below, so we don’t want to get greedy on this one. In case DIA gaps down below its trigger price, remember the MTG Opening Gap Rules so that you do not short unless it breaks the low of the first 20 minutes.
Daily Reality Report:
Below is Morpheus Trading Group’s daily
performance report of closed trades and an update on all open positions from
The Wagner Daily (ETF Intraday Real-Time Room trades are reported
separately in The Wagner Weekly). Net P/L figures are based on the
quantity of shares represented in the MTG Position Sizing
Model.
Closed Positions:
-
WMH long (from July 7) –
bought 40.51, sold 40.95, points = + 0.44, net P/L = + $41
DIA short (from July 9) –
shorted 91.86, covered 92.10, points = (0.24), net P/L = ($54)
Open Positions:
-
(none)
Notes:
We took profits early on WMH yesterday due to broad market weakness. We also shorted DIA per yesterday’s Wagner Daily and trailed the stop lower, but were stopped out for a small loss when the Dow retraced more than 61.8% of its intraday range late in the afternoon.
Per a call in the ETF Real-Time Room, we also took HHH short overnight. Based on the negative after-hours action from Yahoo! after their earnings report, it will probably gap down significantly today. As always, profit or loss from calls made in the real-time room will be reported on the next weekly newsletter.
Click here for
a detailed explanation of how daily trade performance is calculated.
Click here for a detailed
cumulative report of MTG’s trading performance (updated weekly)
Glossary and Notes:
Remember that opening gaps that cause stocks
to trigger immediately on the open carry a higher degree of risk because the
gaps (both up and down) often do not hold. Use caution if trading stocks with
large opening gaps.
Trigger = Exact price that stock must trade
through before I will enter the trade. If a long position, I will only enter the
stock if it trades at the trigger price or higher. For a short position, I will
only enter the stock if it trades at the trigger price or lower. It is really
important to only enter the position if the trigger price is hit, otherwise the
trade becomes riskier.
Target = The anticipated price I am
expecting the stock to go to. However, this does not mean that I will
always hold the stock to that price. If conditions warrant, I will sometimes
take profits before that price, in which case I will notify you of the
change.
Stop = The price at which I will have a physical stop
market order set. As a position becomes profitable, this stop price will often
be adjusted to lock in profits. Again, you will always be notified of such
changes in the next daily report or intraday if you subscribe to intraday
updates.
SOH = Sit On Hands (Don’t Make Trades)
Closed P&L
under Deron’s Report Card is based on the actual price I closed my trade at, not
just the theoretical target or stop price listed for each stock. Open P&L is
based on the closing prices of the most recent trading day.
Unless
otherwise noted, average holding time is 1 to 3 days once a position is
triggered. Updates on open positions are provided daily.
Yours in success,
Deron M. Wagner