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The Wagner Daily


Commentary:

Better than expected earnings reports from semiconductor giant Intel and banking leader JPMorgan Chase sparked a broad-based rally yesterday, enabling the major indices to convincingly surge above last month’s prior highs. Stocks gapped sharply higher on the open, traded sideways throughout most of the day, then made another leg up in the final hour of trading. The S&P 500 Index motored 1.8% higher, while both the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.5%. All three indexes closed at fresh 52-week highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 2.0% and the S&P Midcap 400 advanced 1.8%. All the main stock market indexes finished near their intraday highs.

Turnover soared across the board, enabling the S&P and Nasdaq to score a bullish “accumulation day.” Total volume in the NYSE was 18% higher than the previous day’s level, as trading in the Nasdaq swelled 16%. The return of institutional buying helped volume in both exchanges move back above 50-day average levels, albeit only marginally. It was positive that a session of higher volume gains followed the previous session’s “distribution day.” Market internals were solid, indicating broad-based buying interest. In the NYSE, advancing volume exceeded declining volume by a margin of 7 to 1. The Nasdaq adv/dec volume ratio was positive by more than 4 to 1.

If you glanced at just the briefest moment of financial news on the popular media outlets last night, you undoubtedly were bombarded with enthusiasm and hype that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recovered to close above the 10,000 market for the first time in a year. But even though 10,000 is a nice, round number to get the general public excited about, the reality is there’s absolutely no technical significance to that price level. The Dow was already trading at its 52-week high, and no substantial price resistance was overcome in order for the Dow to break 10,000. If anything, the 10,000 level offered only a bit of psychological resistance. What is notable, however, is that the Dow is now just 5% away from major resistance of a two-year downtrend line. This is shown on the weekly chart below:

Presently, the long-term downtrend line of the Dow is around the 10,500 level, approximately 5% above its current price. Because that downtrend line is so lengthy, the Dow will almost certainly face a formidable amount of resistance as it nears that level. Furthermore, resistance of the 50% Fibonacci retracement, from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low, is just above the 10,300 level (only 3% higher). The weekly chart of the benchmark S&P 500 is also showing similar resistance of its long-term downtrend line, but it’s only about 3% above its current price. Take a look:

Because of the fast-approaching resistance levels shown above, savvy technical investors and traders may soon consider lightening up on any long-term positions into strength. After the inevitable short to intermediate-term correction eventually comes, positions can then be re-entered at what will likely be better prices. Even if a substantial pullback doesn’t occur (which we believe is unlikely), stocks are bound to undergo a lengthy period of price consolidation as the S&P and Dow run into their long-term downtrend lines.

Ironically, and somewhat humorously, one popular financial news outlet was implying that the Dow’s crossing of the 10,000 level was a good reason for the general public to now start jumping back in the market. Ha! Where was that advice 6 months ago? If only the average investor were to glance at a long-term chart of the S&P or Dow, he/she would not start buying, right as the stock market approaches huge long-term resistance levels. In the near-term, the market continues to act bullish, and has given us no solid reasons to exit long positions or start selling short. However, it would be unwise to discount the very real possibility that the long-term downtrend lines shown above will soon pressure the short and intermediate-term uptrends.


Today’s Watchlist:


U.S. Oil Fund (USO)
Long

Shares = 150
Trigger = 38.91 (above horizontal price resistance)
Stop = 36.22 (below 20 and 50-day support)
Target = no specific target (will trail stop)
Dividend Date = n/a

Notes = USO did not trigger yesterday, but remains on our watchlist going into today. See commentary in yesterday’s Wagner Daily for explanation of the setup.


Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.


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    Notes:

  • MOO stopped out yesterday.

  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.

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Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader

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