Commentary:
Jumping higher after the open, then reversing into negative territory shortly thereafter, stocks got off to a whippy, volatile start yesterday morning. However, price action stabilized in the afternoon, enabling the major indices to settle near the flat line, just as they’ve done several times over the past week. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.1% higher, and the benchmark S&P 500 Index was unchanged. The small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indices eked out gains of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The main stock market indexes closed near the middle of their intraday ranges.
Total volume in the NYSE declined 4%, while volume in the Nasdaq was 8% greater than the previous day’s level. However, turnover in both exchanges remained below 50-day average levels. Trading during the holiday-shortened week leading up to Easter is typically slow, and this time has been no exception. Since today is the last day of the first quarter, we might see a bit more activity today, but volume will probably remain at depressed levels until next week. Price action could easily remain range-bound until next week as well.
The U.S. Dollar Bull Index (UUP), which we bought after it pulled back to the 50-day MA on March 17, has retraced back to support of last week’s breakout level. This pullback may provide a secondary buy entry for traders who missed our initial entry. Take a look:
The most basic tenet of technical analysis states a prior level of resistance becomes the new level of support, after the resistance is broken. As such, prior resistance of the February 2010 highs should enable UUP to hold firm near its two-day lows. The rising 20-day exponential moving average (the beige line) further provides support. We still anticipate a resumption of the intermediate-term uptrend, and will look for a move out to new highs next week.
As anticipated, iShares Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) has gapped above its recent resistance, confirming the break of a five-month downtrend line. In the March 29 issue of The Wagner Daily, we illustrated how FXI had “undercut” the lows of its recent consolidation, and suggested such action would likely lead to a breakout above its recent resistance and downtrend line. Two days later, that’s what has happened. With FXI now showing clear relative strength to the domestic broad market, it should be less susceptible to any weakness that hits the S&P, Dow, or Nasdaq in the near-term. The FXI breakout is shown on the daily chart below:
With the major indices “correcting by time” near their recent highs, and traders laying low ahead of the holiday weekend, we’re laying low with regard to new position entries. However, if price action remains in a bullish consolidation pattern, we could start to see new opportunities arise next week. But until then, we’ll simply focus on managing our existing four open positions for maximum profitability.
Today’s Watchlist:
There are no new setups in the pre-market today. If we enter anything new, we’ll promptly send an Intraday Trade Alert with details.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.
- No changes to our open positions at this time.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader