The Wagner Daily

market timing model:

– Singal generated on the close of April 15 (click here for more details)

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist
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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on two separate $50,000 model portfolios (one for ETFs and one for stocks). Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

$todays watchlist
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closed positions:

open position summary
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ETF position notes:

  • $OIH sell stop triggered and we are out. Note the split stops in $SMH.

stock position notes:

  • $SLCA buy limit triggered.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

Stocks suffered an ugly day of losses across the board. The selling was accompanied by big volume, with NYSE volume jumping 42% and Nasdaq volume up 22%. The selling was broad based, with 194 out of 197 industry groups down at least 1%. With well over 800 stocks dropping 4% or more on heavy volume today, it was the worst day we have seen this year in terms of individual stock damage.

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite failing recent breakouts, along with the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 breaking down below the 50-day MA, the timing model shifts in to neutral. As with the last sell signal, we will have to see how stocks react over the next few days to determine if the rally is dead. If leading stocks and major averages follow through to the downside within the next few days, then the model will be forced in to sell mode.

This has been one hell of a tough market since late February…very challenging to say the least. The key to mastering any trading system is to continue to trade in the same manner week in and out and learn from mistakes. Switching styles after a bad run of trades may result in short-term results or happiness, but over the long run, those who stick with one system and learn it in and out will eventually be rewarded.

Open position detail:

  • WDAY – Is more of a speculative play off the 50-day MA. If it was an A rated stock then we would have held on to the position with a loose stop, but we’d rather take the small profit here and monitor the action. We plan to close WDAY at the market on Tuesday’s open.
  • LNKD – We do not love yesterday’s selloff on higher volume which created a false breakout. That being said, this stock is A rated, and we have a decent entry, so we are giving the setup room to breathe.
  • UNG – The price action has failed to extend much beyond the breakout pivot around 22.40 since our entry, with one false breakout already in place. We are raising the stop to just beneath the low of 4/9, which is also below the rising 10 and 20-day MAs.
  • SMH – Broke down below the 10, 20, and 50-day MAs on higher volume. We raised the stop to just below Monday’s low for about 1/3 (150 shares) of the position. The original stop remains on the final 2/3.
  • CLDX – Broke down below the 10 and 20-day MAs, but has support around $11 and could hold. No change to our stop (which is just below).
  • KKD – Also broke down below the 10 and 20-day MAs. No change to our stop (which is just below).
  • SLCA – Ugly day! While we expected $SLCA to dip through the 50-day MA for a day or two, we did not expect it to break the 50-day MA by more than 6%, and close at the lows of the session on higher than average volume. With $SLCA below the 50-day MA, there is no reason to own this stock and we are selling it on Tuesday’s open.

Our plan it to sit tight and manage existing positions, as well as monitor leading stocks and major averages over the few days. Further downside from current levels could force the model in to sell mode with the market potentially correcting for several weeks.

relative strength combo watchlist:

Our Relative Strength Combo Watchlist makes it easy for subscribers to import data into their own scanning software, such as Tradestation, Interactive Brokers, and TC2000. This list is comprised of the strongest stocks (technically and fundamentally) in the market over the past six to 12 months. The scan is updated every Sunday, and this week’s RS Combo Watchlist can be downloaded by logging in to the Members Area of our web site.

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