market timing model: BUY Current signal generated on close of November 13.
Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 75 to 100% long. If positions are holding up well, then one can add exposure beyond 100% (for experienced traders only).
Past signals:
- Neutral signal generated on close of November 6.
- Buy signal generated on close of September 9
- Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
- Buy signal generated on close of July 11
- Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
- Sell signal generated on close of June 24
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
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open positions:Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.
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closed positions:
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ETF position notes:
- $GWL buy stop triggered.
stock position notes:
- $TWTR buy stop triggered. Canceled the $BSPM buy entry on the open due to gap up of more than 1.3% above trigger.
ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:Note to new subscribers:
If you have recently signed up for our newsletter, then you will notice that there are quite a few open positions, with many of them in the money. The best way to approach establishing long exposure is to simply start small and build on success.
For example, if you have room for a maximum of 8 stocks/ETFs in your portfolio, it is best to establish 2-3 new positions (20-40% of portfolio value). If these positions move in the money fairly quickly, then you can add a few more.
One should never dive right into the market by establishing full exposure in just a few days. This is more along the lines of operating out of fear of missing a move, and one should never operate out of fear in the market. Take it slow and build on success!
Stocks rallied across the board on Wednesday, producing new swing closing highs in the NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, and S&P 400. The S&P 500 closed just a bit short of the prior swing high, while the Dow Jones is about 0.5% away.
Turnover increased on both exchanges, registering an accumulation day in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. Although many traders may feel uneasy about current conditions, it is tough to argue with a market where 3 out of 5 major averages are setting new swing highs (with S&P 500 a close 4).
In yesterday’s report we listed $GWL as a buy setup above $29.25. $GWL triggered for us on the open and closed near the highs of the day with a solid 1.1% gain.
Current long position $SEA broke out to new swig highs after a few weeks of rest. We remain long from our entry point around $20.50 on 12/20.
There are no new setups for tonight; however, we are monitoring a recent breakout in iShares MSCI Israel Capped ($EIS) for a potential pullback entry next week.
In the chart below, $EIS broke out from a tight, five week base above a rising 50-day MA. We are looking for a three to five bar pullback as the entry. The target is around the $54 – $55 area where there is resistance on a weekly chart.
Our current long position in First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas ($FCG)has yet to prove itself, as it remains range-bound, but looking at the monthly chart below it clearly has potential.
The first hurdle to clear for $FCG is the two-week high and the 10-week MA (around $19.40).
The next step would be to take out this month’s high (around $19.70) and attract some momentum buyers.
If $FCG is able to clear the 4-month high, the target on the move out would be around $24.00 (prior highs of 2011).
On the stock side, $TWTR triggered a buy entry over the 5-minute high using the 5-minute rule. This rule can be found in the subscriber guide (there is a link at the top of the report).
$BSPM gaped more than 1.3% above our trigger, so the setup was canceled. We will continue to monitor the action in $BSPM for a new buy point to develop.
We have two new swing setups on today’s watchlist in $GOMO and $CAMT.
$GOMO is a Chinese internet stock and a recent IPO. It only has a float of 4 million shares, so it is a fast mover. We are playing it for its relative strength (has a 96 ranking). We are looking for the uptrend to resume after a few weeks of rest. This is G.O.N.G. type of setup (go or no go)…it either works out right away or we are stopped out. This is not a core setup, so we will look to exit on strength after we are up 2-3x what we have risked on the trade.
The second setup is in $CAMT, which is an Israeli semiconductor stock. It has recently broken a 13 year downtrend line (see monthly chart) and has formed a pretty tight range the pasts few weeks after finding support around $4.
The buy entry is over a short-term downtrend line on the hourly chart. Since we should already be in at $4.40, we do not have to wait for a move above the two-day high.
$CAMT is not a core setup either, but it could be very explosive and potentially run 40-60% or more in 2-4 weeks.
