Ping Pong Anyone? – (UCO) (XLY)


Stocks took back most of Friday’s gains but, once again, trade was light. However, the market did manage to recover into the close, and finished off of session lows. All five major indices ended the session in the red, with the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the decline. By the closing bell, midcap stocks slid 1.7%, while small-cap issues were off 1.6%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5%. Both the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%.

For the second time in as many days, market internals were mixed. Volume ended the day lower by 6.1% on the Nasdaq and 7.5% on the NYSE. The ratio of declining to advancing volume ended the session at 11.6 to 1 on the NYSE and 4.0 to 1 on the Nasdaq. For the second day in a row the light volume indicates that institutions are still on the sidelines.

Yesterday, on well above average volume, the Retail HOLDRS ETF (RTH) undercut its 20-day EMA, and rallied to form a reversal candle as it closed near session highs. The high of today’s reversal candle could serve as a buy entry trigger for this ETF. Ideally, we would like to see RTH consolidate for a few days in a tight range before attempting a move higher. We are monitoring this ETF carefully for a possible buy entry.

Yesterday, on a big spike in volume, the S&P Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index ETF (XLY) formed a distinct bullish reversal candle. A volume fueled move above the three day high of $39.49 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF.

Our open positions in both EUO and AGA performed well yesterday. However, given the lack of follow through in the market, we will be looking to protect gains should any signs of weakness appear in either ETF. If we see a gap up of these positions in the morning we will likely close both trades.

The market continues to send mixed signals, as it struggles to find a direction. For the third consecutive day the market ended the day at the polar opposite of where it closed the previous session. This type of whipsaw action makes for a difficult trading environment. However, it is encouraging that the broad market undercut, but held support at the three day low. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new official setups for today. As always, we will send an intraday alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

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  • RWR and UCO setups were canceled but we are still monitoring the action for a low-risk buy entry.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader