The Wagner Daily – September 15, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL (markets back below 20 & 50-day MAs
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:
- No trades.
Broad market averages undercut the prior day’s low and reversed higher on Wednesday. If there is any follow-through to the upside, look for resistance in the 4,000 to 4,060 area from the 20ema, 50ma, and the midpoint of Tuesday’s ugly red candle in the S&P 500 futures.
Daily chart of S&P 500 E-mini Futures:
In Wednesday’s report, we mentioned that growth (from our watchlist) held up well on Tuesday, which was a surprise. High beta growth stocks can drop 2-3x the market when conditions turn ugly, so for stocks like $SWAV, $CELH, and $ENPH to close 1% lower or slightly positive on the day is a sign of great relative strength.
That being said, Tuesday’s plunge was as ugly as it gets, so we want to avoid putting new money to work unless we see ideal, low-risk buy points emerge.
$ENPH set a new all-time closing high on volume. If/when market conditions improve, this stock should be one of the first to explode higher.
$SWAV could be in play for very aggressive traders only above Wednesday’s high which would clear the short-term downtrend line. Officially, we are waiting for a pullback to the 10-week ma to buy. That buy could be in a few days or a few weeks.
$WOLF has also held up really well but is a bit too extended from the 20ema for a low-risk entry at this time. Note the RS line breaking out to new highs ahead of price.
There are no new setups for Thursday. Growth appears to be turning the corner but market conditions are far from ideal right now.
Unofficial Setups –
- Longs – $SWAV over Wednesday’s high or on pullback to 10-week ma
- Shorts – none
See you in the chat room,
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