Wagner Daily Lite for March 13, 2012 – Is ($KBE) Primed to Pop?

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Stocks closed mixed on Monday as volume waned. Large cap issues outperformed as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher, while the Nasdaq, S&P MidCap 400 and small-cap Russell 2000 slid 0.2%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Specialty finance and Utilities were the best performing sectors, while coal, precious metals and oil services were the day’s underachievers. Overall, it was a quiet session.

For the fourth time in as many days, market internals were mixed. Volume declined on the Nasdaq by almost 15.0% and on the NYSE by 10.7%. Declining volume held the upper hand on both exchanges. The ratio of advancing volume to declining volume ended the session at minus 1.5 to 1 on the NYSE and minus 1.8 to 1 on the Nasdaq. For a second straight day, institutions were absent from the market.

Over the past six weeks the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has tested resistance near $22.60 on three separate occasions. Since testing support at the 50-day MA on March 6th, KBE has rallied to reclaim its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. A move above the two day high of $22.62 would be the fourth test of this key resistance level and could result in a buying opportunity in KBE.


Since testing support of its 20-day EMA on March 6th and 7th, the DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund has been consolidating just above this key mark for the past three sessions. A volume assited move above last Friday’s high of $29.43 could provide a buy entry trigger for this ETF.


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