The Wagner Daily – March 1, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- No trades triggered.
Tuesday will be day 4 of a new rally attempt in the market. We are waiting for a buy signal in one of two ways, either a follow-through day (+1.5% or more gain on higher volume in an index) or a reclaim of the 21-day EMA.
The model portfolio remains long a 5% starter position in $DDOG but will look to add long exposure as new setups develop.
$DAC pulled back to the 20-day EMA and found support with two bullish reversal candles over three sessions.
Not an official setup
$MU could be ready to move out within the next day or two.
Not an official setup
$AOSL is holding the 50-day MA the past few sessions and may soon be ready to push higher.
Not an official setup
There are no new official setups for Tuesday, but we are monitoring a few stocks that could be in play. We will send an intaday alert if any action is taken.
Whenever the market (ideally the Nasdaq) attempts to bottom out, we look for a few things:
- Higher lows, market should hold the low set on day one of the new rally attempt
- Market reclaims 10-day SMA and eventually reclaims the 20-day EMA (within a few weeks)
- Follow through day (buy signal) prints on day 4 or later of a new rally attempt (may occur before or after the index reclaims the 20-day EMA)
- New leadership emerges to confirm the fresh new buy signal
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – watching $DAC $MU $AOSL $SLB $CLS $VRTX
- Shorts –
See you in the chat room,
Rick
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts
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