The Wagner Daily – February 22, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- Per intraday alert, sold short $SNAP and $TER.
- Stopped out of $DDOG.
As of this writing, Nasdaq 100 futures is -1.8% off last Friday’sclose.
In last Friday’s report, we mentioned that Thursday’s selling in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. increased the odds of the trend reversing lower after a few weeks of higher prices. That scenario did play out on Friday, as broad market averages continued to sell off and break support.
$SPY closed -0.7% lower and broke support of a prior low which created a second lower high on the daily chart. The short-term counter-trend bounce has given way to the longer-term downtrend. $SPY is also back below the 200-day MA, which is never a good place to be.
The Nasdaq Composite closed -1.2% lower and took out a recent swing low which created a lower high and lower low on the daily chart. The lower high and lower low reverses the counter-trend bounce off the lows…the downtrend remains in control. Note the 50ma crossing below the 200ma which is a bearish signal.
We discussed the possibility of adding a few more short positions in last Friday’s report but could list official setups as US index futures were trading significantly higher after Thursday’s close. However, by Friday’s open there wasn’t much of a gap, so we added two new short positions in $TER and $SNAP via intraday alert. Both positions closed lower.
$DDOG stop triggered and we are out with a 6% loss on a half position. Although we took a few small losses on the long side the past few weeks, the model portfolio is positioned well should the market continue to sell off.
As for the long side, there isn’t much to do, especially if shorts are working. Gold ETF and gold stocks have been strong as of late but are not actionable right now. $RTX is one of the better-looking charts out there near highs but we are just monitoring for now.
There are no new official setups for Tuesday due to US index futures trading -1.8% lower as of Monday afternoon.
$TWTR, $SNAP, and $SNOW are a few short setups we are monitoring. $ENPH, $RBLX, $APPS, $PLUG, $SE, and $ISRG are a few more.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – none due to market volatility
- Shorts – none due to market volatility
See you in the chat room,
Rick
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts
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