The Wagner Daily – January 10, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
- no trades triggered
The S&P 500 closed out last week’s trading still above the 50-day MA. The last two pullbacks to the 50 were followed by a sharp reversal up….will this time be different?
The Nasdaq 100 closed at a big support level. The current selloff is a bit different than the last two, as the index has clearly broken the 50-day MA.
The Nasdaq 100 lost some leadership last week with $NVDA, $AMD, and $MSFT breaking the 50-day MA. $AAPL broke its 20-day EMA and may be headed to the 50ma if it can’t reclaim the 20ema within the next day or two.
With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at support, it’s tough to initiate new swing trades on the short side without some sort of bounce. As mentioned last Friday, it’s more of a day trader’s market for shorting.
If the market does find support and reverses higher, then oil or financial stocks are likely the best bet. $OXY is looking pretty good with an entry over the two-day high following Friday’s tight trading range. This is not an official trade.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- If the market rallies, then $OXY, $MUR, $APA, and $JPM could be in play.
- If the market breaks down, then $MU could be in play below Friday’s low for a quick short to the $92 area.
See you in the chat room,
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
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