The Wagner Daily – March 3, 2022
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
- Per intraday alert, bought $DOCS.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed with solid gains of +1.9% and +1.6% respectively. The volume failed to confirm the price action as it was lighter on both exchanges, so no follow-through day (FTD). That being said, a 1% or more close above the 21-day EMA on either index would generate a buy signal in the timing model (no need for a FTD).
How we’d like to see the rally play out during the next few weeks:
- Buy signal in the timing model…FTD or reclaim of 21-day EMA
- Stocks begin to breakout on volume and hold and indexes hold the 21-day EMA
- Number of stocks making new 52-week highs vs 52-week lows enters into positive territory
It will be tough to increase long exposure past 50% until a few of the above conditions are met.
Per intraday alert, bought $DOCS due to Thursday’s bullish reversal candle action and move through resistance at $60. For now, the stop is Wednesday’s low. Looking for the price to break the downtrend line soon with some help from the market.
There is one new official buy setup for Thursday’s session in $LYV.
$LYV has no earnings growth but has three quarters in a row of +600% sales growth along with a yearly eps esimate of $1.53 for 2023, which is a 189% increase. We like the consolidation near the highs with the price action setting higher lows in February vs lower lows in the S&P 500. The relative strength line has already set a new high ahead of price (a bullish sign). The recent breakout led to a shakeout down to the 20 and 50-day MAs, where the price found support. We have a buy stop to enter over Wednesday’s high, which would put the price back above the $121.50 breakout area.
$LYV’s group is ranked 28 of 197. Its 12-month RS rating is a solid 95. The accumulation/distribution rating by marketsmith is a D+, which isn’t ideal. However, it’s showing a ton of relative strength in a strong group.
The charts below are not official setups, just monitoring the action for now.
Whenever the market (ideally the Nasdaq) attempts to bottom out, we look for a few things:
- Higher lows, market should hold the low set on day one of the new rally attempt
- Market reclaims 10-day SMA and eventually reclaims the 20-day EMA (within a few weeks)
- Follow through day (buy signal) prints on day 4 or later of a new rally attempt (may occur before or after the index reclaims the 20-day EMA)
- New leadership emerges to confirm the fresh new buy signal
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – watching $CARG $PANW $AOSL $ACLS $LYV $GFS $SQM $BYD $SEDG $JKS – Stocks off lows that could pop $PLUG $BLDP $UBER $SQ
- Shorts – entries below prior day’s low only if market is weak – $BYND and $APP
See you in the chat room,
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
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