The Wagner Daily – April 6, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – BUY as of 3/16 close
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- No trades triggered.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite sold off on higher volume and erased all on Monday’s advance and a bit more. The selling increases the odds of further chop and a possible test off the rising 20-day ema in both indexes (and 200-day MA in S&P).
The false breakouts and breakdowns below support/resistance the past few months has created a wide trading range.
Prior to our timing model flashing a buy signal on 3/16, we posted the following:
Keys to market turning bullish:
- Buy signal in the timing model, such as a FTD (follow through day) or reclaim of 21-day EMA
- Stocks begin to breakout on volume and hold… indexes hold the 21-day EMA
- Number of stocks making new 52-week highs vs 52-week lows enters into positive territory
- After the first wave of breakouts, new setups emerge
Going through the list above, other than the indexes printing a follow-through day (3/16) and reclaiming the 21-day ema and holding, there is very little to get excited about. The few breakouts we saw in semis on volume failed and rolled over on volume. $TSLA, $PANW, and $PSTG have held up. Not much power out there.
$SMH sliced through the 50-day MA on heavy volume. Let’s see if support holds around $248
Major ETFs now below the 50-day MA: financials ($XLF), tranports ($IYT), semis ($SMH), and homebuilders ($XHB).
There is one new official short setup for Wednesday in $DFS.
$DFS is forming a ledge, which is what we call basing action in a downtrend when the moving averages are stacked to the downside (20<50<200). The highs of the ledge stalled just below the declining 50-day MA and is now in chop mode setting lowers highs. Our entry is beneath the low of Tuesday’s tight-ranged inside day, with a protective stop above the three-day high.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – $PLAY over yest high
- Shorts – $TPX, $FBHS, $DELL, $RBLX (entries below prior day’s low)
See you in the chat room,
Rick
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
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