The Wagner Daily – Market Weakness Ahead

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$SPX daily

The Wagner Daily – April 18, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist

open positions:

$open positions

closed positions:

$closed positions

position notes:

  • Per intraday alert, bought $COP.


Note – As of this writing, the Nasdaq futures are down -1% and S&P 500 futures -0.7%.

Friday’s selling erased all the bullish engulfing action on Thursday and suggests further weakness in the short-term.

Unless the price action can reverse higher Monday morning, it looks as though a test of the uptrend line (at the very least) is next for the S&P 500.

$SPX daily

The Nasdaq Composite also gave back the prior day’s advance.

$Nasdaq Composite daily

Can the financials ($XLF) hold support around $36.60?

$XLF daily

Per intraday alert, we bought $COP last Friday looking for some oil exposure on a breakout above the three-day high. The breakout failed to follow through and sold off with the market. Let’s see if the price can bounce back this week.

$COP daily

The weekly chart has bounced off support of the 10-week MA and uptrend line.

$COP weekly

The short side of the market is in play but maybe a bit tricky to enter depending on how much of a gap down we see Monday morning. The setups below are not official but should be monitored for an entry.

$PENN is shortable after a weak bounce into the declining 8-day EMA following a breakdown beneath an obvious low. The entry is on a break of Friday’s tight-ranged session low with a stop above the high of the same day.  If the price gaps down significantly, then it may be best to pass on the setup or wait for a bounce near Friday’s low to enter.

$PENN daily

$LEN is another bounce into the declining 8-day EMA after a breakdown below an obvious support level. The entry is below Friday’s low with a stop above the high of the same day. Avoid the setup if there is a significant gap.

$LEN daily

As for longs, if Monday’s action turns bullish then $TSLA is one to watch for a partial sized entry over last Friday’s high … if the price can hold the 20-day EMA. Not an official entry.

$TSLA daily

$OXY and $OAS are a few more energy stocks that could be in play this week. $OXY is not an official setup since we bought $COP last Friday but could be in play over Friday’s high.

$OXY daily

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

  •  Longs – $OXY >60.60, $PFE >54.00 
  •  Shorts – entries below Friday’s low – $UBER, $XPEV, $FUTU, $BLDR (avoid if too big of gap)

See you in the chat room,


This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

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