The Wagner Daily – May 3, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – Sell
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- No trades triggered.
A strong late afternoon rally created a bullish reversal candle on the daily charts of all the broad market averages we follow.
The S&P 500 undercut and closed back above a major swing low with a bullish reversal candle on volume. This is known as undercut and rally type action, which can often lead to a bottom in a bullish chart or at the very least a short-term bounce.
Monday’s selling pushed the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) above 35, which has led to short-term bottoms in the S&P 500 this year.
The Nasdaq Composite also reversed higher on volume but closed just shy of reclaiming the prior low. If it can do so within the next day or two, then it should be able to push higher.
Monday’s bullish reversal action is day 1 of a new rally attempt. If Monday’s lows do not hold within the next day or two, then that would be a clear negative and likely lead to more selling. A buy signal for us can occur as early as day 4 of a new rally with a follow-through day.
Shorts at this point are off the table. As for longs, this is not exactly a great environment for growth stocks so it’s one that we would play with light size until there is more evidence of a clear bull.
There are no new official setups for Tuesday. However, $GTLB is in play unofficially above Monday’s high looking for the price to reclaim the 20 and 50-day MAs and clear the downtrend line. The stop can be placed beneath Monday’s low.
One could also look to buy $SPY or a leveraged $SPY ETF with a stop beneath Monday’s low looking for a short-term pop.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – $GTLB – over Monday’s high, watching $HRT $TOST $ONON $MAT $LNTH $CALM
- Shorts – none
See you in the chat room,
Rick
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts
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