The Wagner Daily – October 10, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:
- No new setups.
Better-than-expected jobs data buried any hopes of a new buy signal late last week, as broad market averages were crushed with losses in the -2% to -4% range.
Although it may seem counterintuitive, the street was looking for a negative report to possibly alter the Fed’s current position of raising rates. The strong data gives the Fed no reason to adjust current policy, so more rate hikes are ahead.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are already trading back below the summer low.
Prior to last Friday’s plunge, market conditions for growth were improving, with a few stocks potentially in play on the long side. However, by Friday’s close, leaders such as $SWAV and $PCTY had pierced their 50-day moving averages on heavy volume.
Due to the high volatility, which makes risk control difficult, one should be extremely cautious with any long positions (even with reduced size).
Leading solar stock $FLSR failed a recent breakout attempt and closed with an ugly reversal candle on the weekly chart below. There was almost no pause during the 8-week rally off the lows. Such a rally, once momentum wanes, frequently triggers an even more explosive move back down in a weak market.
$FSLR could be back to the 40-week MA in no time.
There are no new official setups for Monday, but $ALB could be one to watch on the short side for a breakdown below Friday’s close, which was just below the 50-day MA. If shorting, look to cover either on a move back through the 50-day MA or Friday’s high. This is not an official setup.
Unofficial Setups –
- Longs – none
- Shorts – $ALB
See you in the chat room,
Rick
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