The Wagner Daily – June 21, 2022
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- Per intraday alert, sold short $NVDA looking for a range break.
Stocks pushed higher in reaction to last Thursday’s bearish gap down that set a new swing low in the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.
The Nasdaq Composite gained +1.4% and closed near Thursday’s high. If the price can punch through Friday’s high and hold the downtrend line, then the index may see higher prices in the short term.
There is clear resistance above 11,000.
The S&P 500 was much weaker than the Nasdaq, as it closed in the bottom half of Thursday’s range and only gained +0.2%. The S&P 500 is further away from the downtrend line connecting prior swing lows with heavy resistance above 3,800.
The daily charts of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are a bit stretched from the 20-day EMA and may be due for a bounce. If the market wants higher in the short term, then we’d expect any bounce to be short-lived and eventually give way to more selling. This is not a prediction, as we know that conditions can change quickly.
Per intraday alert, we sold short $NVDA on a third break of the range low. The action did not go as planned, as the price recovered with a bullish outside day. An outside bar occurs when the current bar takes out the prior bar’s high and low. If Friday’s high is taken out first, then expect higher prices in the short term. If Friday’s low is first, then a resumption of selling.
Our stop is just above $161.00.
Depending on Tuesday’s action, the following setups may or may not be in play unofficially.
$TSLA is in play on the short side beneath the low of Friday’s tight-ranged session with a stop above the same day’s high.
$TWTR is another example of a tight-ranged session that could be in play beneath Friday’s low or the two-day low with a stop above Friday’s high.
$CRWD is potentially in play on the short side looking for the 20-day EMA to hold up as resistance. The entry would depend on Tuesday’s open, especially if a higher open fails, as that could lead to a lower-risk entry point beneath the opening 30-minute range low.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – none
- Shorts – in addition to the charts above, $MSTR and $NFLX are in play below Friday’s low.
See you in the chat room,
Rick
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts
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