The Wagner Daily – Ugly Start: S&P and Nasdaq Distribution

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Nasdaq Composite daily

The Wagner Daily – November 23, 2021

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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quick jump to:today’s watchlistopen & closed positionsmarket commentaryresources:subscriber guideour trading strategybloghandy links:

MTG Market Timing Model – BUY  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist

open positions:

$open positions

closed positions:

$closed positions

position notes:

  • Per intraday alert, sold $AMD to lock in a +25% gain.
  • $ZI stops triggered for a scratch gain.
  • Per intraday alert, sold half of $ON for a 6% gain and raised the stop on the second half.

Commentary:

Stocks kicked off a holiday-shortened week of trading with ugly distribution days in the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite dropped -1.3% on volume and closed with a wide-ranged, bearish reversal candle after a failed gap up to highs. Although the S&P 500 only gave back -0.3%, it closed -1.2% off the highs of the day after a failed breakout attempt.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are still in trend mode above the rising 20-day EMA.  Midcap growth ETF $IWP is no longer in trend mode as it sliced through the 20-day EMA.

Nasdaq Composite daily

Russell Midcap Growth $IWP

iwp DAILY

In last night’s report, we mentioned “there was some disappointing action in leadership last week, but the good still outweighs the bad and our timing model remains on a buy signal.” The timing model is still on a buy signal, but in the short term, Monday’s selling forced us to raise some cash and tighten up stops.  Whether we are short-term cautious for a few hours or a few days, will depend on how stocks react to Monday’s selling.   

There are no new setups for Tuesday. Note that the $NEWR buy stop has been canceled.

We sold all of $AMD, half of $ON, and raised the stop on the remaining half to lock in gains. $ZI stops triggered for a scratch gain. Recent breakouts in $ZI and $S were disappointing due to the weak follow-through.

We now have four open positions in the model portfolio: $NVDA, $RBLX, $ENPH, and $ON. By selling $AMD and $ON, we reduced exposure to semis to help us sit through a pullback in $NVDA. Note that we tightened up the stop on half the $NVDA add due to Monday’s ugly reversal.

We are trying to give $NVDA, $RBLX, and $ENPH enough room due to the explosive follow-through from our buy points. For those who do not wish to hold through a potential pullback, selling all or partial size near Monday’s close may be best. Really depends on how one prefers to trade.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

  • none

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