Category: The Wagner Daily – Archives

Along with $CNX, $PTEN is an official setup.

We like the constructive action on the pullback to support from the base high and rising 8-day EMA. Our buy stop is over last Friday’s high with a stop beneath last week’s low.

First up is a potential breakout from a 7-week long cup in $CNX. We like the tight-ranged price action on Thursday just below the base high. Our buy stop entry is $23.

Both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 found support at the 20-day EMA, which is the line in the sand for the current rally/bounce.

The daily chart of the Nasdaq Composite has more breathing room before hitting major resistance in the 12,600 – 12,800 area. The 50-day MA and 50% fibo retracement level from the last wave down line up around 12,800.

$BG cleared resistance at $117 on heavier than average volume and could be in play on a pullback.

$BG carries a 96 relative strength rating and 98 composite rating from IBD.   The industry group rank is 22 out of 197.

Last Friday’s official setup in $LTHM missed its trigger by a few cents. The reason why we went with a limit order slightly above the prior day’s close is that we were looking for a flat or slightly lower open. We thought about placing a buy stop above the prior day’s high, but the protective stop beneath the 2-day low would have been close to 12% (too wide).

Thursday’s 3% rally on higher volume produced a follow-through day buy signal on the Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 did not follow through due to lighter volume but did manage to close above the 21-day EMA.  A close 1% or more above the 21-day EMA would generate a buy signal  the S&P 500 (though the Nasdaq buy signal is enough to switch the timing model back to buy mode).

Russell 2000 reclaimed the 21-day EMA but did not close 1% above.

The daily charts of the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 closed at resistance, so let’s see how these indexes react during the next few days.

Tuesday’s bullish reversal led to higher prices in all major indexes we track. Growth led with $ARKK +4.6% and $IWP +2.1%. The Nasdaq 100 gained +1.4% and +0.9% for the S&P 500.

The daily charts below look to be headed higher in the short-term IF Wednesday’s lows hold. Whether or not they can recapture the 20-day ema and hold, we will see.

Leadership remains the same with oil stocks on top. Oil-based ETFs $XOP and $GUSH are potentially in play for a pop above the two-day high.

Oil stock $KOS is buyable above the high of Tuesday’s inside day, which is also above the downtrend line.

Small-Cap Russell 2000 index ETF $IWM closed with a tight-ranged inside day and is potentially in play for a swing over the two-day high. Note the higher low that is in place vs a lower low in the S&P or Nasdaq.

Rather than buy $IWM, we have a buy stop in $TNA (3x leveraged small cap) for a quick swing trade (see trade details above).

While Friday’s reversal action puts us on alert for a short-term bounce, the timing model remains on a sell signal with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite trading below a declining 20-ema on the daily chart.

Energy stocks remain near highs but this sector is tough to trade on strength, so entries should be as close as possible to the 20 or 50-day MAs.

Still monitoring $LNTH for a power-play setup due to the explosive +100% move in a short period of time with only a 21% correction.