Category: The Wagner Daily – Archives

Stocks chopped around in a fairly tight session on Thursday digesting the prior day’s trend-day-down. Let’s say the market is able to push higher from Thursday’s weak close, there isn’t much real estate out there before running into resistance from downtrend lines and declining 20-day EMAs.

$DAL bounced into resistance from the 20, 50, and 200-day MAs on Tuesday with a close below the 50-day MA the next day.   A break of Wednesday’s low is the trigger with a target of the prior low around $35. This is not an official l setup. 

Day four of a new rally attempt produced follow-through day (FTD) action in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite with both indexes  up more than +2% on higher volume.

The Nasdaq Composite reclaimed the 8-day EMA and may be headed for the 20-day EMA or 50-day MA.

Day three of a new rally attempt in the market produced a tight-ranged inside day in $QQQ on lighter volume. There was also a close in the lower half of the day’s range. This two day bounce off the lows creates a shorting opportunity for us beneath Monday’s low with a protective stop over the two-day high.

If $QQQ pushes higher from here and takes out the two-day high, then that could lead to another test of the 20-day EMA, which has provided resistance during the selloff.

$AAPL has held up well this year but recently cracked a major support level. Can it reclaim the 20-day EMA?

Growth ETF $ARKK had the best showing, with a gap down that reversed higher and just missed closing with a bullish engulfing candle. Look for $ARKK to push higher in the short-term as long as it doesn’t retrace too much of Thursday’s action.

$AAPL and $TSLA breaking down below range lows won’t help the Nasdaq. $AAPL sliced through the prior low on very heavy volume and closed at the lower trendline.

Not much changed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite trading inside the prior day’s range. The S&P 500 tried to reverse higher in the afternoon but stalled and closed in the bottom 40% of the day’s range.  

If the market is to bounce higher, then we should see decent short setups emerge later this week.

There isn’t much to do on the long side other than continue to monitor stocks with relative strength.

Speaking of relative strength, $CC has held up well since the gap. Tough to buy this stock under current market conditions.

Monday’s action looks to have been the nail in the coffin for bulls hoping to see a strong reversal up after a shakeout below range lows. The S&P 500 sliced through support and distanced itself from the range low with Monday’s -3% loss. Buckle up, as the selling could intensify. That said, we are happy to be almost all in cash with the exception of a small 4% position in $USO. 

The S&P 500 is still hanging on to the prior low. However, if last Friday’s low does not hold, then we will likely see a pick up in selling and a possible new low on the year.

If the S&P 500 can open above and hold last Friday’s close, then it may have a shot of reversing.