Category: The Wagner Daily – Archives

The model portfolio bought and sold $GTLB within the first hour of trading for a small -0.25% loss of account equity.

The $USO buy limit order also triggered but managed to bounce off the lows of the session. We are looking for $USO to hold the 50-day MA and eventually break out above base highs.

Two of the biggest leaders in the market, $TSLA and $AAPL, are in danger of breaking down after losing the 200-day MA on heavy volume.

$GTLB is another official setup with an entry based on Wednesday’s bullish outside candle, which cleared the downtrend line. We like the tight consolidation during the last few weeks that did not set lower lows with the market. We have a buy limit order to enter at Wednesday’s high or lower to avoid a bad fill due to a potential gap up. This stop is pretty wide due to the daily volatility, so we are going with small size.

Last week, $XLE closed below the 50-day MA and was in danger of potentially losing this average, which would have likely led to a deeper correction off the highs. $XLE may still be headed for more sideways action, but so far it’s holding the rising 50-day MA and remains leadership.  Note the bullish breakout in the relative strength line vs the S&P 500.  

Monday’s bullish reversal action is day 1 of a new rally attempt. If Monday’s lows do not hold within the next day or two, then that would be a clear negative and likely lead to more selling.  A buy signal for us can occur as early as day 4 of a new rally with a follow-through day. 

Shorts at this point are off the table. As for longs, this is not exactly a great environment for growth stocks so it’s one that we would play with light size until there is more evidence of a clear bull.  

There are no new official setups for Tuesday. However, $GTLB is in play unofficially above Monday’s high looking for the price to reclaim the 20 and 50-day MAs and clear the downtrend line. The stop can be placed beneath Monday’s low.

$HRT is one of a few stocks with higher lows in place during the past few months. This stock isn’t actionable due to week market conditions but should be placed on a buy watchlist.

Although both indexes rallied more than 2% on higher volume, the focus was after the bell as tech giants $AAPL and $AMZN reported earnings.

$AAPL managed to hold up overall, but is trading 2% lower and near the 200-day moving average. Can the 200-day MA hold?

$FB is up 18% in after-hours trading after reporting earnings. Could be in play on the short side looking for the price to stall at the 50-day MA and reverse lower.

Growth ETF $ARKK also set a new low on the year after Tuesday’s -6% slide. Much like the Nasdaq, we would expect some sort of a bounce within the next few days.

Although the market could bounce higher in the short-term, conditions are not ideal for new long entries.

Here are a few of the better-looking names along with an unofficial setup in $REXR.

$CAR, $CUTR, $DLTH, $DEO, $f

Last week, we stopped out of $NUGT for a 3% gain. While a 3% gain isn’t a big deal, we were happy with our exit given the ugly gap down on 4/19. Although there was a bearish close the day before on 4/18, a bad close should always be confirmed by further weakness the next day. Getting out on 4/18 would have made us more money but that would have been a prediction, not good trading. In successful breakouts, we often see bearish reversal candles that shake out weak hands only to move higher the very next day.   The only time we would not wait for confirmation is when a bearish close prints after a blow-off type move after an extended run.