The Wagner Daily – February 8, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
- Stopped out of the $CF add.
Volatility dried up as the S&P 500 closed with an NR7 day, which is the most narrow trading range of the past 7 sessions. When price contracts it eventually has to expand, but to which direction we do not know.
The S&P 500 hasn’t been able to reclaim the 20-day EMA since gapping below last Thursday.
$AAPL closed with an inside day at the 50-day MA and should be monitored for leadership (up or down).
The majority of new breakouts have struggled with little to no follow-through. Our $CF add triggered its stop for a small 3% loss on a 2.5% position. The model portfolio is down to two 5% longs in $MTDR and $CF.
$UPS is potentially in play over the high of Monday’s reversal candle. This is not an official setup right now.
On the short side, $ZI could be in play unofficially beneath Monday’s low looking for the price to roll over after stalling at the 20-day EMA. Earnings are 2/17.
Choppy market conditions right now…so be careful out there and try to avoid doing too much. If the market does push higher, we may take an official entry in $UPS if the setup triggers. The same goes for the short side. Either way, there aren’t a ton of great setups out there.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
Depending on market conditions:
- Longs – $UPS buy at 227.83
- Shorts – $ZI short at 51.45, $SYF $CRM also in play below Monday’s low
See you in the chat room,
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
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